Forward Concepts has released an in-depth study of the worldwide market for cellphones, and the chips that go into them. The 560-page report forecasts handsets, chips, device manufacturers and service operators.

The report finds that 2004 cellphone shipments reached 715 million units, including inexpensive PHS/PAS (Personal HandyPhone Service / Personal Access System) units in China. 2005 sales are expected to increase by only 4.5 percent to 746 million units as demand for older technologies drops, offsetting strong gains by newer technologies. Forward expects TDMA shipments to drop 30 percent this year and even GSM should see a 23 percent decline.

On the other hand, cellphones supporting newer high-bandwidth technologies are expected to see sharply higher shipments. The report anticipates the following sales increases in newer technology cellphones for 2005:

• EDGE: up 51 percent to 60 million units
• WCDMA: up 165 percent to 45 million units
• CDMA2000 1xEV-DO terminals: up 65 percent to 16 million units

The 2G PHS is being rapidly displaced in Japan by newer technologies but is gaining ground in China, Taiwan, India and other countries owing to its low cost. Forward expects PHS sales to go up by 24 percent and reach 77 million units.